Idea of the Week: Polling Data Suggests Congressional Incumbents in Trouble in November
Aug 6, 2010
By Catherine Ramsey1
The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) published an article titled The Summers of Our Discontent: 1994, 2006, and 2010 in the July/August edition of the think-tank’s AEI Political Report. Based upon certain key indicators from 1994 and 2006, years when the sitting President’s party lost a significant number of seats during the midterm elections, the article proposes that Democrats, including incumbents, will lose a considerable number of Congressional seats during the November 2010 midterm elections.
The AEI proposal is based on a number of indicators: Presidential approval in July and August before the midterm elections; Congressional approval in those same months; whether voters want most members of Congress reelected, regardless of party; and greater enthusiasm for the current minority party. Despite President Obama having a slightly higher approval rating that President Clinton 1994 and President Bush in 2006, AEI reported on polls showing a Congressional approval rating of only 21%, much lower than in 1994 and 2006 when opposition parties took over the House. In addition, the AEI poll shows that 56% of voters do not want current members of Congress reelected and, combined with a 56% “enthusiasm” rating for Republicans, these numbers suggest heavy losses for the Democrats in November. Thus, it is likely that the Republicans will gain control of the House of Representatives when the 112th Congress is sworn in in January 2011, replacing Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) with current Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) as the new Speaker of the House.
The AEI article also reported on a Washington Post poll conducted in July 2010, asking registered voters if it was more important to have Democrats in charge of Congress to help support the President’s policies, or to have Republicans in charge of Congress to act as a check to Obama’s policies. Among these registered voters, 51% approved of a Republican majority, as opposed to 43% who favored a Democratic majority. The article also suggests that factors including the economy; what voters see as a lack of impact by the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act on jobs; concerns about the increasing deficit; concerns that Social Security will collapse; a rising Tea Party; and disapproval over health care reform point to a Republican takeover of Democratic seats this November.
The entire AEI report may be found here.
1 Catherine Ramsey is NABL's Assistant to the Director of Governmental Relations. She is a 2008 graduate of St. Lawrence University.